As the crisis in Yemen grows worse every day, the main stream media has beat around the bush when describing this violence. No major media outlet (CNN WSJ, NYT, and others) are willing to call the conflict a full blown civil war. They prefer to continue to describe events as moving it closer to civil war. My question? What do you have to do to earn the title of a civil war these days? Simply stated, Yemen is engaged in civil war. The mobs and rocks have given way to militias and bullets. Here are a few reasons why Yemen is in the middle of a civil war.
To begin, the riots that began in Yemen should be understood within the context a revolution. A revolution takes place when civilians revolt against the government to rapidly change the structure and power of that government. This is in contrast to a civil war where war breaks out between two or more organized groups within the same nation state. The later is what is currently taking place in Yemen. In the past few weeks the Hashid Tribal Alliance and, as of June 1, the Bakil Tribal Alliance have been fighting pro-President Salah forces and captured key areas in the capital of Sana. While the fighing has been ravaging the capital city, other militant groups are taking advantage of the situation. On May 29th al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) asserted their strength by capturing the city of Zinjibar. The fact that AQAP is brazenly raising their head in Yemen, to the point of actual seizing a city, reveals that the central government of Yemen is imploding (not that it has ever been strong).
More significant than the tribal attacks within Sana or AQAP capturing Zinjibar is Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar one of Yemen's major generals. He defected from the government last month, and has now sent soldiers to fight pro-Salah troops in the capital. When major generals defect and send regular soldiers to fight presidential troops, there should be no question about whether or not a country has collapsed into civil war. To put things in perspective Gen. al-Ahmar has at least 40,000 soldier loyal to him (including mechanized units) and the tribes have tens of thousands more. President Salah has at least 50-60,000 loyal soldiers. So ignoring all the other armed tribes and generals in Yemen, as of today over 100,000 soldiers are at odds with one another. There is a civil war in Yemen and no amount of wishful thinking is going to change that. No one gains from this situation, except groups like AQAP and I would put my money on Yemen becoming the next Afghanistan (severely failed terror state) unless something changes and changes quickly. President Salah has been a good friend of the Unites States and has worked to fight AQAP and any loss of control means an opportunity for our enemies.
Let me know if you think Yemen is experiencing civil war by checking out my poll at the bottom of this page!
