Last week Turkey expelled Israel's top diplomats and ended all military cooperation. After 9 Turks were killed in the flotilla incident last year Turkey threaten repository action. Now that the UN recently declared Israel's actions at the flotilla were excessive but legal, Turkey has begun a series of diplomatic moves to show their discontent with Israel's actions. First, they expelled Israel's top diplomats and then threaten to move some naval assets into the Mediterranean. Next Turkey announced that is might use those naval assets to provide a military escort for the next flotilla that attempts to breach Israel's blockade of Gaza. The entire episode has been very unfortunate. Turkey has been a partner with Israel for years and their joint military ventures has provide Muslim-Israeli cooperation. So one has to ask, what does Turkey's recent positioning really mean and what do both sides have to loose or gain?
First, any attempt by Turkish battleships to breach the Israel blockade would be an act of war. The international community has declared the blockade legal which gives Israel even more incentive to confront any move by the Turkish Navy. Turkey has more to loose than Israel in starting a military altercation. Turkey has been attempting to join the EU for years and confirmation with the Israeli navy is certainly not going to help their membership bid. Also it would most likely result in both a military and international embarrassment. Given that it is extremely unlikely that Turkey would attempt to forcibly breach the blockade, one can ascertain that the statements about a flotilla escort are meant as rhetoric to appease the Turkish public and to send a message to Israel. The exposition of diplomats is also a symbolic move. The countries still have diplomatic ties, which means Turkey sees its relationship with Israel as productive.
The end of military cooperation is a little more complicated and has more negative consequences for Israel. Turkey has gained a lot of new military technology from Israel, including many types of UAV drones. Some have speculated that now that Turkey has successfully purchased weapons from Israel it has little incentive to keep up the relationship. I am not sure this is true. The move to end military relations might also be diplomatic positioning. However, Israel is the one to loose here. Not only has Israel sold advanced equipment to Turkey, but Turkey can also provide airspace for Israel in the event of a confirmation with Iran. If Turkey denies Israel access to their airspace it would make if more difficult to bomb Iran. In addition to denial of airspace, Israel has to consider loosing and important partner in the fight against Islamic terrorism. Hamas recruits from Turkey and loosing help in that area will serious damage Israel's efforts to curb Hamas.
Most of Turkey's actions in the last week can be seen as attempts to follow though on theirs threats following the death of nine of their citizens. Israel has not apologized and that is probably a good thing at this points. An apology right after the fact would have gone a long way, but now would make Israel appear weak visa v Turkey. Right now the best thing is for both Turkey and Israel to take a time out more or less. Miscalculated moves to could lead to more than symbolic action and for Israel that would not be good in the long run. Turkey would be crazy to continue to push relations with Israel in negative direction, because Turkey has a lot, both economically and military, to gain from partnership with Israel. The events of the last week have really be nothing more than diplomatic positioning, but too much rhetoric may lead to foolish actions. However, I don't see Turkish leadership being stupid enough to engage Israel in a game of chicken over the blockade. Israel doesn't play chicken. Israel responds to military threats by destroying the opposition.
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