Bomb Hits Jerusalem After Several Years of Quite

Two days ago (March 23) a bomb exploded across from the central bus station in Jerusalem. This marks the first attack of this kind in many years. One person was killed and many dozens were injured as a result. This horrific event brings back images of the unrelenting terror attacks of the Second Intifada. For me this atrocity strikes home because last year I frequented that bus stop and I stopped to catch a bus there just a few weeks ago.  I find myself asking several  critical questions: who is responsible and why attack now?

While no terror organization has claimed responsibility at this time, I believe the perpetrators to be the  Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Several factors point to the PIJ as the culprits. First, the only other group that is likely to carry out this kind of attack in Jerusalem is Hamas. It is unlikely, that Hamas is responsible, because Hamas normally claims responsibility and more recently has been trying to gain international legitimacy and has limited itself to rocket and mortar attack from within Gaza (this week they have dramatically increased these artillery attacks). In contrast, the PIJ prefers to act behind the scenes and does not always claim responsibility for attacks.

When answering the question of why, I have several feasible answers. Recently there has been competition between Hamas and PIJ (Over, who is the more viable Palestinian organization in Gaza) and this recent attack may be PIJ asserting its influence and ability to attack Israel. Another alternative explanation is Iranian Influence. PIJ receives the majority of its funding from Iran and from time to time Iran seeks to directly influence PIJ operations in order to forward Iranian regional goals. A terror attack in Israel may do two things for Iran. First, it places stress on the Israeli security apparatus and may start another Israel military operation in Gaza. This will distract Israel from the pending Iranian nuclear threat. Second, if attacks continue or Israel responds with too much violence or kills civilians, it may lead to a third intifada. A third intifada would destabilize the entire region more than it already is. Iran is already capitalizing tremendously from the unrest in the Middle East and is gaining influence as Shia Muslims stage protests and open revolts (against Sunni regimes).

Whatever the reason or motive for the bombing, I hope this horrific and tragic event is isolated and that will not lead to more terrorism and violence. The best thing the the Israelis can do is attempt to find the perpetrators and continue to damage both Hamas and PIJ ability to conduct terror operations. However, overreaction or rash decisions by the Israeli government or IDF could escalate of violence and renew terror attacks (For example, in response to Hamas mortar attacks in southern Israel yesterday, the IDF hastily conducted a retaliatory mortar strike which killed four Palestinian civilians). At this point proceeding only with good intelligence and caution is best.

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